Play the percentages
Meaning
To make decisions or take actions based on what is statistically most likely to succeed or be advantageous.
Origin
Before the formalization of probability, people instinctively made choices based on likelihood. But as mathematics evolved in the 17th century with figures like Pascal and Fermat, the world gained the tools to precisely quantify these chances. It wasn't until the 20th century, however, that this quantitative thinking truly seeped into common parlance, especially within the high-stakes arenas of gambling, sports, and finance. To 'play the percentages' then became the mantra of those who eschewed gut feelings for cold, hard data, betting on the statistically most probable outcome to maximize their chances of success, solidifying the phrase as a cornerstone of strategic decision-making.
Examples
- When investing, it's always wise to play the percentages and diversify your portfolio rather than putting all your money into one risky stock.
- Even though the underdog team had a passionate fan base, the coach decided to play the percentages and stick with the proven strategy for the final quarter.